Monday, October 29, 2001
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Wednesday, October 31, 2001

U.S. Planning Full Invasion / Bombing Success Thus Far

Excerpts from article describing rumors regarding a full invasion of Afghanistan being planned by the Pentagon for the Spring of 2002 ...

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The Pentagon is considering mounting a ground invasion of Afghanistan if the current bombing and special forces campaign fails to achieve its aims, American defence sources said yesterday.

The allies would carry out sporadic bombing attacks throughout the winter while the opposition Northern Alliance was built up into a workable ally before a full-scale ground invasion in the spring.


Northern Alliance fighters armed with
rocket propelled grenades move into
new positions in Jabal us Saraj north of
the Afghan capital, Kabul, 10/29/01

... The new plan emerged as Geoff Hoon, the Defence Secretary, held talks in Washington with his US counterpart, Donald Rumsfeld, amid suggestions of differences between Britain and America over the prosecution of the war.

Mr Rumsfeld originally rejected invasion plans put forward by Gen Tommy Franks, the commander-in-chief of US Central Command, who is running the military operation, telling him to plan for a series of special forces raids.

But the difficulties of gathering intelligence was shown by the rapid aborting of a US special forces mission into Afghanistan 12 days ago. Resistance was far higher than expected and it has made military planners think again.

Gen Franks had now been given his head and told to go off and organise it all, a move that led to his current tour of countries in the region to see what they are prepared to offer in the way of bases, the sources said.

"The plan now is for a long winter of sporadic attacks and the occasional special forces mission," one said. "Meanwhile, we will be getting trained up and organised for a conventional invasion in the spring.

Speaking after yesterday's talks, Mr Rumsfeld said that, while the "modest" numbers of US special forces now on the ground were nowhere near those used in the Second World War or Korea, "we have not ruled that out". Mr Hoon added: "Nor have we." ...

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Excerpt from an article detailing the success of the bombing campaign thus far ...

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The Taliban's increasingly strident propaganda campaign claimed yesterday that none of its soldiers had been killed after more than three weeks of US bombing which had achieved nothing but the "genocide of Afghan civilians".

But despite criticism echoed by some western commentators, there is no doubt that the bombing is almost certainly the most targeted and measured in history. It has been largely successful.


Flight deck crewman watches an
F/A-18 Hornet launch from the USS
Theodore Roosevelt, 10/30/01

... The allied air campaign is widely misunderstood. It is much smaller in scale than earlier conflicts. During the Gulf War, the coalition air forces averaged 1,500 missions a day. There were fewer during Kosovo, but the allies still deployed more than 1,000 aircraft at times. The maximum over Afghanistan on any one day has been 100 and yesterday it was just 79, including aid drops.

If America had attacked the Taliban in the same sort of strength that it used against the Iraqis and Serbs, it might well have totally destroyed the regime within the space of a week. US aircraft destroyed Afghan air defences within days, as opposed to weeks during the two earlier campaigns. But they have been constrained by a need to keep the civilian infrastructure intact and to restrict the number of civilian casualties to a minimum.

A heavier campaign would have resulted in far more civilian casualties but coming in a very short period the numbers might well have had less effect on the allies. It is the steady series of small numbers of casualties over an extended period that has raised emotions.

Eliminating civilian casualties is an impossibility in any kind of warfare. In fact, smart bombs are far better at finding their target now than they were even during the Gulf War.

The US has become a victim of the expectations raised by smart technology, yet around five per cent will miss simply because their guidance systems fail. Some will miss because a pilot will make a mistake while under pressure to control his aircraft and programme the bomb's guidance system.

Despite the problems, western journalists in territory occupied by the Northern Alliance have heard reports from the Northern Alliance that the vast majority of bombs dropped by US aircraft on the Taliban front lines are hitting their targets with amazing accuracy.

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Excerpt from an article detailing the use of U.S. forces to assist airstrikes in northern Afghanistan, and other pertinent news regarding the military campaign to date ...

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The Pentagon moved yesterday to step up its support of the anti-Taliban rebels in northern Afghanistan, acknowledging for the first time that U.S. troops are on the ground to coordinate intensified airstrikes and signaling that additional military assets may be moved to Central Asia in the coming weeks.

Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said "something like 80 percent" of yesterday's airstrikes were aimed at frontline troops of Afghanistan's ruling Taliban militia. A senior defense official said the strikes focused on Taliban units barring the opposition Northern Alliance from taking Afghanistan's major northern city, Mazar-e Sharif, and its capital, Kabul.

Rumsfeld said the U.S. combat troops in northern Afghanistan are playing a liaison role with the Northern Alliance, designating targets for airstrikes and helping arrange logistical support. "We do have a very modest number of ground troops in the country," Rumsfeld told reporters at the Pentagon. "They're in the north. We've had others on the ground who have gone in and come out in the south."

... The shift of the Pentagon's attention to northern Afghanistan after several weeks of concentrating airstrikes on the south of the country could provide several military and political benefits to the United States and its allies.

By helping the Northern Alliance advance, it would enable the United States to point to progress in the 24-day-old war as well as open up northern land corridors for humanitarian food relief for starving Afghans as winter approaches. ...

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The Age of Darkness

Excerpts from article describing the life of a 10 year old girl in present day Afghanistan ...

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If she can't escape, ten-year-old Vida will soon become like all women in Afghanistan, who are forced into the burka and cease to exist in the eyes of men

Imagine you have the misfortune to be born a girl in Afghanistan. This is what would happen. There would be various degrees of hell, depending on whether you lived in areas held by the Taleban or by the Northern Alliance.

But the scenario is still the same: you are born into a life of sorrow. For a while, though, until you are four or five, you play freely. You run barefoot, play in the dust, ride your donkey, kick a ball.

Then one day, without warning, the door to the world is slammed shut.

Your mother comes home with a headscarf and makes you wear it; you are separated from boys. If you live in the north, you can go to school until you are a certain age, but there will probably be no books for you.

If you make it to the university for girls in Faizabad and study medicine, for instance, you will emerge so badly educated that you will not be allowed to operate on a corpse.

Later you will be covered from head to toe by a hot, itchy burka. You will not be able to see or hear while wearing it, and you will stumble as the material catches in your shoes, which is the point: you are meant to be subdued.

If you live in Taleban-controlled areas, you will sit at home all day, with the windows painted so that you cannot see out and no one can see you.

Sometimes you might venture outside, but burkas are expensive, so you share one with your sister and your mother. That means you can never go out together.

If you do not wear the burka, you will be beaten or stoned. You know that the slightest misbehaviour could result in a death sentence.

You are made to wear silent shoes so that you are not heard; the point being that you don’t exist. You become invisible. The light inside you is methodically extinguished.

Your early life, that time before the burka, when you were free to run, laugh, skip or play with your friends, becomes a distant and impossible dream.

Vida Nazir does not look like other ten-year-old girls in this dusty village at the beginning of the vast Central Asian Steppe. It is not just because she wears a diamanté headband in her glossy hair instead of a headscarf, and a sweater emblazoned with a cartoon over her shalwar kameez. It is because she still has a light in her eyes, a strength to her character, and her posture is proud and defiant.

She has not yet been ground down by an extreme interpretation of Islam, and she is still young enough, and idealistic enough, to believe that her life can be different from the other females.

At ten, she has the desire to try to save herself from this place, a place where a woman simply disappears. She is like this partly because her mother, Farahnaz, is the extraordinary woman who founded the first women’s group in Afghanistan, and who also refuses to wear a burka. “I don’t wear one because we are human,” she says, indignantly.

... Until she can escape, Vida dreams. She practises her English, reading aloud from her few books. Today it is a story about the inventions of Leonardo da Vinci and his desire to fly. “He believed that man could have giant wings and fly,” she says in her sing-song voice.

It is a startling analogy for Vida and her stilted life. As I watch her tiny figure waving goodbye from her whitewashed house on the hillside overlooking the river, I remember something her mother told me: “A bird has two wings. Men and women are two wings of society. If one is broken, the other one can’t fly.”

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  • The Times [link inactive]

The Unhysterical Guide to Staying Safe

Excerpt from a guide containing common sense tips to being prepared and staying safe in the event that you find yourself face-to-face with a threat from a terrorist attack ...

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The shock of the September 11 airplane attacks has made the improbable and the catastrophic suddenly seem possible.

... But some scenarios are more likely than others. That's why we've assembled this guide to help you sort out the threats for yourself and see what precautions people are taking.

The possibility of any of these things happening is extremely remote. Even assembling the needed biological or chemical agents would require far more organization, money and expertise than was evident on September 11.

But, in the interest of being prepared for the unlikely and also calming down any unnecessary fears, here's what's being done, and what you can do. ...

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Scramjet Test

Excerpt from an article describing a test of new engine which has the potential to some day dramatically reduce long-distance flight times. ...

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... Experts say scramjet technology has the potential to reduce the flying time from London to Sydney to two hours, and substantially cut the cost of space launches.

Traditional approach

Scramjets are simple in theory; they have no moving parts and grab the oxygen needed to combust fuel from the atmosphere.

That makes them more efficient than conventional rocket motors, which carry their own oxygen supply on board, adding weight and cutting the potential payload. But the big problem is that scramjets only start to work at speeds greater than five times the speed of sound, or Mach 5.

A few weeks ago, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency in the United States launched a scramjet from a gun. The Americans say their experimental engine flew under its own power for a fraction of a second - a world first.

A Nasa scramjet test in June failed when the missile that was intended to bring the engine up to its operating speed went off course.

The engine tested at Woomera was built by an international consortium led by researchers at the University of Queensland and is jokingly referred to as a "scroungejet".

"Ours is a low-cost alternative, and we've had to develop all sorts of ancillary equipment on the cheap," said Allan Paull, project head at the university.

"We've bought a lot of bits and pieces off the shelf from automotive shops," he added.

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